:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec,
26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 907 km/s at 23/1631Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 22/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 23/1710Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5557 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    30/40/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 142
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 145/150/155
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  017/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  013/018-011/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/40/25
