:Product: 1226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec,
29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 26/0233Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8194 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 166
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 170/175/170
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
