:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 28/1526Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/0913Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0901Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8999 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 188
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 185/175/170
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  006/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/30
