:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 29/1634Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0822Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6,690 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 196
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 175/170/165
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  007/008-011/012-021/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/45
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/70
