:Product: 0101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 01/1710Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0858Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1918 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jan), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan). III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jan 169 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 168/166/160 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 014/016-028/042-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor Storm 30/40/15 Major-severe storm 05/25/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/15 Minor Storm 20/15/30 Major-severe storm 65/85/45