:Product: 0102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 884 km/s at 02/1611Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/1600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4,196 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (03 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (04 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan). III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jan 166 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 166/160/165 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 026/042-015/018-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/25 Minor Storm 40/25/10 Major-severe storm 25/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 85/65/35