:Product: 0103RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 683 km/s at 03/0431Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1940 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan). III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jan 165 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/018-010/008-008/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/20 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 65/35/25