:Product: 0104RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 04/2048Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1926 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan). III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jan 157 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 007/010-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 30/10/10