:Product: 0105RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 05/0118Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1595 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan). III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jan 154 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 152/148/140 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10