:Product: 0108RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 08/1746Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 08/0600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 508 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jan 140 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 130/130/132 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 015/024-013/015-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/20 Minor Storm 30/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/50/25