:Product: 0109RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (12 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 09/2011Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/1117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 08/2309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 433 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Jan). III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan Class M 15/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jan 117 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 118/118/120 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 016/021-021/030-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 70/70/50