:Product: 0110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 10/2010Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 10/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 10/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2507 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 114 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 118/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 019/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 021/030-011/015-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 70/50/50