:Product: 0111RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 11/1911Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 11/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/1544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 501 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Jan). III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jan 111 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 110/110/112 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 015/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 025/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 021/028-014/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/35 Minor Storm 45/25/15 Major-severe storm 30/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 15/25/30 Major-severe storm 85/60/50