:Product: 0113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 13/0146Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/0337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3574 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan). III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 117 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 120/122/125 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 011/012-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/25/15