:Product: 0116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 801 km/s at 16/1856Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 16/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8697 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (18 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Jan). III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jan 148 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 145/145/147 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 018/025-017/020-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/35 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 75/70/50