:Product: 0117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 17/1050Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 17/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 17/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2762 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jan). III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 159 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 022/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 020/024-017/020-012/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/35/30 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 70/50/45