:Product: 0118RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 735 km/s at 17/2132Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/1541Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4618 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (19 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 65/65/65 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 148 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 018/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 017/020-012/016-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/45/40