:Product: 0119RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (20 Jan) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2211Z according to ACE and DSCOVR, but speeds are likely much higher. Total IMF reached 86 nT at 19/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -49 nT at 19/2035Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36976 pfu at 19/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7877 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan). Protons are remained above threshold on day one to three (20-22 Jan). III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/20/20 Proton 99/95/65 PCAF red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 173 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 040/061 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 058/086-017/020-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor Storm 35/10/10 Major-severe storm 35/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 79/40/30