:Product: 0121RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 859 km/s at 20/2234Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 20/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 20/2100Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 85 pfu at 20/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3,332 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan). III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 45/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jan 188 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 091/143 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 045/074 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 025/032-011/015-009/009 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/15 Minor Storm 25/10/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 60/45/20