:Product: 0122RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 679 km/s at 22/0011Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 22/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 22/0505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5365 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jan 194 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 192/192/190 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 045/073 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 011/012-009/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/20 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/25