:Product: 0123RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 23/1704Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0057Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 22/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3391 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan). III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Jan 180 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 185/190/185 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 015/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 021/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 014/018-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/25/10