:Product: 0124RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 24/0152Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1825Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1645Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 24/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5171 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (26 Jan). III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jan 174 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 175/170/160 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 017/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/008-005/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/20 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 25/10/25