:Product: 0201RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 31/2128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10156 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb). III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 05/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Feb 162 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 005/005-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10