:Product: 0203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 344 km/s at 03/1852Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10479 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and active to minor storm levels on day three (06 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 40/40/40 Proton 30/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 178 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 006/005-010/016-018/027 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/35/40 Minor Storm 01/25/30 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/55/65