:Product: 0204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 04/1948Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 04/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 04/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13970 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb). III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 40/40/40 Proton 30/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Feb 167 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 018/025-017/025-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor Storm 25/30/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/20/30 Major-severe storm 55/65/40