:Product: 0205RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 05/2036Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 05/0226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 05/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 743 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb). III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Feb 176 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 016/020-013/015-016/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/40 Minor Storm 30/10/20 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/40/60