:Product: 0206RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 06/1102Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/1059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 515 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Feb, 09 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb). III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Feb 164 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 015/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 013/015-016/020-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/30 Minor Storm 10/20/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/60/40