:Product: 0207RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 07/0840Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0855Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2062 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb). III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Feb 169 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 170/170/160 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 016/020-013/015-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/20 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/25