:Product: 0208RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 08/1537Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1893 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb). III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Feb 167 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 012/015-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/10 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/25/20