:Product: 0209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 09/1057Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/2216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1764 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb). III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 144 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 009/003-006/002-006/002 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/20