:Product: 0214RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 14/0135Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 14/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 926 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Feb). III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Feb 117 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 019/025-016/020-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 35/30/15 Major-severe storm 15/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 75/65/40