:Product: 0215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 753 km/s at 15/1154Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 15/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 506 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Feb). III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 118 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 023/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 015/020-011/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/20 Minor Storm 35/20/05 Major-severe storm 15/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 75/55/25