:Product: 0216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 16/1919Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/1123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1517 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb). III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 118 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 018/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 024/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 019/012-010/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/15 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 55/55/25