:Product: 0218RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (19 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 17/2158Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3801 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (21 Feb). III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Feb 119 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 009/012-009/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/10