:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 19/1501Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3,260 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb). III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 116 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10