:Product: 0222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 22/1136Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 21/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1100 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Feb). III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 110 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 112/115/118 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 028/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 014/020-011/012-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/15 Minor Storm 30/15/05 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/40/25