:Product: 0223RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 768 km/s at 23/0255Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4,958 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 108 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 024/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 015/022-015/020-014/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/30