:Product: 0314RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Mar 15 0155 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one through three (15-17 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to moderate storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 14/0718Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 14/0542Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/0724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 718 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Mar), and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Mar). III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Mar 112 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 019/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 019/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 019/024-010/015-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/35/25 Minor Storm 55/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 55/25/30 Major-severe storm 45/35/25