:Product: 0315RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Mar 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 725 km/s at 14/2146Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1428 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar). III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Mar 109 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 108/108/105 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 019/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 011/015-008/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/30/25