:Product: 0414RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Apr 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (17 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 13/2256Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0932Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1705 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 10/10/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 101 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 011/012-009/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/25/10