:Product: 0423RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Apr 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 23/0352Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4058 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (26 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr). III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr Class M 55/60/60 Class X 10/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Apr 128 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 135/135/132 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 009/008-011/012-016/022 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/40 Minor Storm 05/05/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/35/60