:Product: 0501RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 01/1217Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 30/2129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 372 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 May, 04 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 May). III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 145 Predicted 02 May-04 May 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 01 May 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 009/010-011/012-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/15 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 15/40/20