:Product: 0502RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 02/0455Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 566 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 May, 05 May). III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 May 159 Predicted 03 May-05 May 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 02 May 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 011/012-009/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/20/20