:Product: 0503RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 03/0325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 479 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May). III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 May 143 Predicted 04 May-06 May 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 03 May 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 007/008-007/006-007/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/25