:Product: 0505RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 05/0514Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/2229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 May, 08 May). III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May Class M 25/25/35 Class X 01/01/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 May 128 Predicted 06 May-08 May 125/120/125 90 Day Mean 05 May 128 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 007/008-012/014-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/35 Minor Storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 35/40/40