:Product: 0506RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (07 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (08 May, 09 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 06/1935Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 May, 08 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 May). III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May Class M 15/30/30 Class X 01/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 May 120 Predicted 07 May-09 May 118/128/130 90 Day Mean 06 May 127 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 011/014-015/018-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/40/25