:Product: 0509RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 09/0336Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/2154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May). III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 May 122 Predicted 10 May-12 May 122/120/118 90 Day Mean 09 May 126 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 007/006-009/008-007/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/25