:Product: 0511RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (13 May, 14 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 11/0323Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 431 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 May). III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 May 116 Predicted 12 May-14 May 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 11 May 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 010/012-013/015-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/20 Minor Storm 10/20/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/20 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/50/20