:Product: 0512RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (13 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (14 May, 15 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 11/2227Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 393 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and active to minor storm levels on day three (15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 May). III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 May 111 Predicted 13 May-15 May 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 12 May 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 013/015-009/010-018/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/35 Minor Storm 20/05/35 Major-severe storm 05/01/20 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/05 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/20/70