:Product: 0514RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 May 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 14/0705Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 316 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (15 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (16 May, 17 May). III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 May 106 Predicted 15 May-17 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 14 May 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 022/030-018/024-016/019 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/40 Minor Storm 40/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/15/10 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 75/65/65